The problem, known as the "spectrum crunch" threatens to increase the number of dropped calls, slow down data speeds and raise prices. It will also whittle down the nation's number of wireless carriers and create a deeper financial divide between those companies that have capacity and those that don't.
Wireless spectrum is the invisible infrastructure over which all wireless transmissions travel is a finite resource. When, exactly, we'll hit the wall is the subject of intense debate, but almost everyone in the industry agrees that a crunch is coming. The U.S. still has a slight spectrum surplus. But at the current growth rate, the surplus turns into a deficit as early as next year, according to the Federal Communications Commission's estimates.
"Network traffic is increasing," says an official at the FCC's wireless bureau. "[Carriers] can manage it for the next couple years, but demand is inevitably going to exceed the available spectrum."
By starving the successful operators of the oxygen they need--spectrum--the government is creating conditions that force a company to provide inadequate service. Everyone agrees that this is an imminent problem: The most successful operators will run out of spectrum by 2015. When that happens, the reduced download speeds and connection reliability will push customers to leave in frustration and switch to other providers. I don't use a smart phone, I mean they are appealing, but if I start dropping calls on my phone that doesn't use hardly any spectrum and the guy sitting there with his Ipad is watching a movie over it, I might be a little pissed.
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